Earlier this year, based on projections from The National Retail Federation, Tampa Bay area consumers were expected to spend more than $43.9 billion at retail this year, a 6.5% increase versus 2020. New data, however, indicates spending will be remarkably higher.

The NRF revised its data this month, and now expects annual growth of 10.5% to 13.5%. Based on these revisions, the Tampa Bay area retail economy could now top $46.3 billion. Excellent news for West Florida small business owners.

“The economy and consumer spending have proven to be much more resilient than initially forecasted,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “The combination of vaccine distribution, fiscal stimulus, and private-sector ingenuity have put millions of Americans back to work. While there are downside risks related to worker shortages, an overheating economy, tax increases and over-regulation, overall households are healthier, and consumers are demonstrating their ability and willingness to spend. The pandemic was a reminder how essential small, mid-size and large retailers are to the everyday lives of Americans in communities nationwide.”

To put in historical context for Tampa Bay small business owners, Mr. Klenhenz noted that he anticipates the fastest growth the U.S. has experienced since 1984. The reopening of the economy has accelerated much faster than most had believed possible a year ago.

To capture the largest possible share of spending growth, local retailers will need to advertise. By the most crucial marketing metrics, the best best way to reach area consumers is by advertising on Tampa radio.

Since March 2020, when the first case of COVID-19 was reported in the Tampa Bay area, more than 281,015 local people have been infected, according to data collected by USA Facts. The measures imposed to contain the outbreak have transformed the way consumers work, shop, commute, and conduct the business of everyday life.

One aspect of daily life in Tampa Bay that remains little changed due to the pandemic is radio listening. Despite the Coronavirus crisis, radio has held its long-held position as the most used of all local media. This is good news for area business owners who depend on radio for marketing their goods and service.

Each week, according to Nielsen, 2.2 million adult consumers tune-in to a Tampa radio station.  This is significantly more people than are reached by all other local advertising options, including TV, cable, streaming video, streaming audio, social media, and newspapers.

A surge in pet adoptions and sales during the pandemic has increased the number of pet owners in the Tampa Bay area to 1,384,240, according to Nielsen.

As a result, the amount of money that will be spent in the Tampa Bay during 2021 on domestic dogs, cats, birds, ferrets, and other cuddly creatures will achieve a record-high $1.1 billion. These figures are based on recent forecasts from The American Pet Products Association (APPA),

“We have reached a critical milestone in 2020, generating $103.6 billion in sales [in the U.S.],” said Steve King, President, and CEO of APPA. “We are bullish for the coming year, projecting growth of 5.8% - well above the historical average of 3 to 4%."

Tampa Bay pet owners will be spending in four ways:

1. Food & Treats which includes everything from canned and bagged food to biscuits and chewies.
2. Veterinary Care and Product Sales which includes routine veterinary care, surgical procedures, and sales of pharmaceuticals and other products through veterinary clinics
3. Supplies, Live Animals, and Over-The-Counter Medications which, in addition to dogs and cats. includes fish, birds, small animals, and reptiles. This also includes cages, food and water bowls, as well as leashes and collars.  OTC includes medications for allergy relief, gastric distress, and oral hygiene.
4. Other includes services such as boarding, grooming, and pet sitting.

To capture a significant share of the local pet economy, local business owners who provide these four types of goods and services will need to advertise.  By almost any marketing metric, the best way to reach pet owners is by advertising on Tampa radio.

There are 637,624 millennials in the Tampa area.  The oldest of them turn 40 this year. According to The Pew Research Center, millennials comprise the generation of Americans born between 1981 and 1996.

As a consumer group, millennials account for an outsized percentage of retail spending. This generation represents 24.7% of the Tampa area population but almost one-third of metro-area sales. 

All in, Tampa Bay millennials are expected to ring up more than $20.5 billion in purchases during 2021.  You name it, millennials are planning to buy it.

According to Nielsen, over the next 12 months, Tampa Bay millennials will show up in huge numbers at auto dealerships, furniture stores, mattress stores, appliance stores, home improvement stores, and scores of other area retailers and service providers.

Now is a crucial time for Tampa Bay small business owners to advertise.  

According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence has surged to 110, the highest it has been since the onset of the pandemic last March.  The index has bounced back from a low of 89.6 in February. 

Moving forward, Florida business owners can expect buyer optimism to remind high.

“The recovery in consumer confidence is set to continue in the coming months, buoyed by the combination of improving health conditions and wider vaccine distribution,” said Lydia Boussour, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “This should support hearty consumer spending and pave the way for a mini-boom in economic activity this spring and summer.”

As Tampa consumers gain confidence, they are expected to unleash the record $13.2-billion in personal savings amassed during the pandemic. This number is based on figures reported by Barron's in November. 

This combination of consumer confidence and the cache of cash-on-hand has led the National Retail Federation (NRF) to forecast a 7% increase in retail spending in 2021 versus last year.

To claim a significant share of the expected spending tsunami, Tampa Bay business owners plan to boost advertising investments this year.

According to Borrell Associates, a company that tracks advertising trends across the country, Tampa business owners are expected to spend $1.9 billion to advertise the goods and services they sell. This represents a 6.9% increase versus last year.

In 1922 when WDAE-AM became the first radio station in Tampa Bay, many considered the medium a fad.  Even in 1937, a hit song by George Gershwin, Our Love Is Here To Stay, considered radio to be a "passing fancy and in time may go".

Tampa radio, however, has survived the advent of talking-movies, television, eight tracks, and cassettes in stereo.  More recently, radio has withstood a tsunami of digital options including, YouTube, SiriusXM, Pandora, and Spotify.

As the Coronavirus pandemic rolls over into a second year, Tampa radio has hung tough and not ceded its ground despite listener's shifting lifestyles.  This is crucial news for local small business owners who depend on local stations to market their goods and services.

Tampa Bay residents will begin receiving economic stimulus checks  from the Internal Revenue Service as early as today.  In all, local consumers will receive more than $4.1 billion in payments.

This infusion of cash into the Tampa area economy was authorized by Congress last week in the American Rescue Plan legislation. 

The stimulus relief legislation calls for a one-time payment of $1,400 to single adults. Married couples who filed jointly will receive $2,800 total ($1,400 apiece). Families will get an additional $1,400 for each eligible dependent regardless of age. A family of four could get $5,600 in total payments. Like the second round of stimulus payments, the third round specifically prohibits payments to anyone who died before January 1, 2020.

Many of the stimulus dollars will end up in the wallets of 808 thousand Tampa Bay homeowners. Based on research from Modernize, a leader in the home improvement and home services industry, 57% of these consumers are planning to spend all or part of their checks on home improvement projects.

Since 1922, advertising on Tampa radio has helped small business owners survive and thrive during times of peril. This includes world wars, natural disasters, depressions, and recessions.

Even during a pandemic, by almost every key marketing metric, radio advertising remains the best way for a Tampa Bay business to market its goods and services.

To prove the point, here are five statistics that vividly demonstrate the value of advertising on Tampa radio.

There is cheerful news for small business owners from Port Richey to Brandon and every city and town in between.

Based on the latest projections from the National Retail Federation, holiday sales are expected to grow 3.6%-5.2% over 2019.  This means despite the economic ravages of the pandemic, Tampa Bay shoppers will be spending between $7.6 and $7.9 billion on gifts and other trappings of the season.

The NRF forecast is based on an economic model that takes into consideration a variety of indicators including employment, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income, consumer credit, previous retail sales and weather. NRF defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31. Numbers forecast by NRF may differ from other organizations that define the holiday season as a longer period or include retail sectors not included by NRF, such as automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

"Consumers have shown they are excited about the holidays and are willing to spend on gifts that lift the spirits of family and friends after such a challenging year," says NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. "We expect a strong finish to the holiday season." 

“Given the pandemic, there is uncertainty about consumers’ willingness to spend, but with the economy improving most have the ability to spend,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Consumers have experienced a difficult year but will likely spend more than anyone would have expected just a few months ago."

There is positive news for the 123,000 small businesses in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro area.  A majority of consumers say they are ready to start shopping again.

A lifestyle survey just released from Nielsen indicates 53% of Americans believe that despite the continuing pandemic, life is beginning to normalize, and they are likely to resume typical activities.  Nielsen refers to this majority as "Ready-To-Go".

According to the survey, Ready-To-Go consumers now perceive less risk, feel safer, and believe their cities are emerging from crisis.

The key takeaway for Tampa Bay small business owners is that Ready-To-Go consumers are significantly more likely to start shopping within 30 days than the total population.  These buyers, according to Nielsen, are looking to spend on home improvement, professional services, auto parts/repair, shopping, food & dining, and travel.

To capture a meaningful share of the money Ready-To-Go consumers will be spending requires local small business owners to advertise.  By almost every metric, advertising on Tampa radio is the best advertising option.