Economic concerns among Tampa Bay area consumers are not expected to subdue holiday shopping in in 2022.  Based on forecasts from The National Retail Federation, local shoppers are projected to spend at least $9.6 billion this year. This would be 6% more than was spent in 2021.

“While consumers are feeling the pressure of inflation and higher prices, and while there is continued stratification with consumer spending and behavior among households at different income levels, consumers remain resilient and continue to engage in commerce,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “In the face of these challenges, many households will supplement spending with savings and credit to provide a cushion and result in a positive holiday season.”

The biggest challenge facing Tampa Bay business owners is keeping holiday spending local. NRF expects 10-12% of purchases to happen online from retailers like Amazon and Walmart.

To lay claim to this expanding pool of holiday spending,  and keep business local, small business owners will need advertising. By, most marketing metrics, the best way to advertise is on Tampa Bay radio.

Attention Tampa Bay small business owners and retailers: nearly half of holiday shoppers are already spending money. According to the National Retail Federation, 49% of consumers will start their Christmas season shopping before Hallowe'en. 

Consumers plan to spend $997.73 on gifts, holiday items, and other non-gift purchases for themselves and their families this year, according to the annual survey released today by the NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics.

In all, based on forecasts from Deloitte, the world's largest accounting firm, Tampa Bay consumers are expected to spend between $12.9 and $13.2 billion during the holiday shopping period. This would be a 7-9% increase over 2020.

"We anticipate strong consumer spending for the upcoming holiday season. As vaccination rates rise and consumers are more comfortable being outside of the home, we are likely to see increased spending on services, including restaurants and travel, while spending on goods will continue to hold steady. A steady decline in the savings rate to pre-pandemic levels will support consumer spending and keep retail sales elevated this season," said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's U.S. economic forecaster. "Further, e-commerce sales will continue to grow as consumers demonstrate an ongoing and steady movement toward buying online across all categories."

Tampa Bay retailers are noticing that the opening bell for holiday shopping has rung earlier than ever for local shoppers.

There is cheerful news for small business owners from Port Richey to Brandon and every city and town in between.

Based on the latest projections from the National Retail Federation, holiday sales are expected to grow 3.6%-5.2% over 2019.  This means despite the economic ravages of the pandemic, Tampa Bay shoppers will be spending between $7.6 and $7.9 billion on gifts and other trappings of the season.

The NRF forecast is based on an economic model that takes into consideration a variety of indicators including employment, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income, consumer credit, previous retail sales and weather. NRF defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31. Numbers forecast by NRF may differ from other organizations that define the holiday season as a longer period or include retail sectors not included by NRF, such as automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

"Consumers have shown they are excited about the holidays and are willing to spend on gifts that lift the spirits of family and friends after such a challenging year," says NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. "We expect a strong finish to the holiday season." 

“Given the pandemic, there is uncertainty about consumers’ willingness to spend, but with the economy improving most have the ability to spend,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Consumers have experienced a difficult year but will likely spend more than anyone would have expected just a few months ago."

Tampa Bay shoppers are expected to spend over $11.6 billion during this year's November-January holiday season. This estimate is based on a forecast issued last week by Deloitte, the world's largest business accounting firm.  This spending represents a 1-1.5% increase  versus the same period last year.

How can Tampa Bay small business owners best compete for a significant share of the 2020 holiday expenditures?

"Retailers who prioritize customers’ desires for a safe, efficient shopping journey will be the big winners this year," writes Sean Gundz on www.ChainstoreAge.com.

"The holiday season is always a stressful time for retailers, especially the ones that make the majority of their revenue in the short window between Thanksgiving and Christmas," says Mr. Gundz. 

"Within this window is Black Friday, which, along with other big holiday sales events, are going to look a lot different this year. Retailers must accommodate COVID-19 mandates that enable social distancing, minimize surface touching, and actually restrict foot traffic in their facilities. All while trying to optimize sales."

Mr. Gundz says there is no single way to deal with the challenges facing retailers this holiday season. He does offer five tips, though, that every Tampa Bay retailer can employ.

Attention Tampa Bay small business owners. The five busiest shopping days of the year are imminent.

Based on data from the National Retail Federation, more than 1.9 million Tampa Bay consumers are likely to shop beginning on Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday.

“The tradition of Thanksgiving weekend holiday shopping has become a five-day event with consumers spending money in stores, supporting local small businesses, and online with their mobile devices and computers,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Even as people are starting to purchase gifts earlier in the season, consumers still enjoy finding good Thanksgiving deals and passing time shopping with family and friends over the long holiday weekend.”

Based on the NRF findings, here are the number of shoppers local business owners can expect on each of these five days:

Tampa Bay consumers are expected to spend $7.3 billion on this year's holiday shopping, based on predictions by The National Retail Federation.  This would be a 4% increase over last year.

Deloitte, one of the world's top four accounting firms, forecasts similar growth.

"The projected holiday season growth is, in part, due to the current health of the labor market,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's U.S. economic forecaster. “Near record-low unemployment rates, coupled with continued monthly job creation, may encourage people to spend more during the holiday season. The economy is still growing, albeit at a slower rate. Additionally, we continue to see consumer confidence elevated, which also helps boost holiday spending."

For most Tampa Bay retailers, holiday spending brings in about 20% of annual sales But, long gone are the days when the bulk of this shopping occurred between Black Friday and Christmas.