Local consumers may have a gloomy feeling about economic conditions, but their spending has not tapered. This is good news for the 123,853 small business owners in the Tampa Bay area.

According to the latest University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers, sentiment about current economic conditions remains near the all-time low. Concerns about volatile gas prices, rampant inflation, and a looming recession have driven the survey's index down 37% versus a year ago.

Despite these dim consumer sentiments, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis's July report shows that real personal consumption expenditures are pacing well above pre-Covid levels. According to Morgan Stanley research, consumers' ability to spend is being driven, in part, by a massive amount of excess savings accumulated over the course of the pandemic.

Earlier this year, based on per capita spending data from the National Retail Federation (NRF). Tampa Bay consumers were forecast to spend nearly $50 billion at retail this year. The current level of spending suggests that shoppers are on track to hit that number.

Of course, for local business owners to successfully compete for a share of this record spending requires marketing. By most key marketing metrics, the best way to advertise is on Tampa Bay radio. This is especially true among business owners who must limit the number of marketing channels that can be used because of economic restraints.

Of all media, advertising on the radio provides the greatest return on investment.

Each week according to Nielsen, 2.2 million consumers tune in to a Tampa radio station. This is significantly more adults than watch local TV stations, cable, or streaming video. It is more than browse social media. It is more than listen to streaming audio services or podcasts. It is more than read local newspapers.

There are two traits Tampa Bay radio listeners have in common. First, they are very loyal to their favorites, tuning-in to, on average, only 2.8 different stations each week.

Second, and of particular importance to Tampa Bay small business owners, radio listeners are returning to 'normal' at a faster rate than the general population after more than two years of pandemic.

Since the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, Nielsen has been measuring consumer sentiment in regard to normal behaviors. In a survey conducted in March of this year, 83% of adults say they are "ready to go and feel life is becoming more normal". This is up dramatically from the same time last year.

There is cheerful news for small business owners from Port Richey to Brandon and every city and town in between.

Based on the latest projections from the National Retail Federation, holiday sales are expected to grow 3.6%-5.2% over 2019.  This means despite the economic ravages of the pandemic, Tampa Bay shoppers will be spending between $7.6 and $7.9 billion on gifts and other trappings of the season.

The NRF forecast is based on an economic model that takes into consideration a variety of indicators including employment, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income, consumer credit, previous retail sales and weather. NRF defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31. Numbers forecast by NRF may differ from other organizations that define the holiday season as a longer period or include retail sectors not included by NRF, such as automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

"Consumers have shown they are excited about the holidays and are willing to spend on gifts that lift the spirits of family and friends after such a challenging year," says NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. "We expect a strong finish to the holiday season." 

“Given the pandemic, there is uncertainty about consumers’ willingness to spend, but with the economy improving most have the ability to spend,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Consumers have experienced a difficult year but will likely spend more than anyone would have expected just a few months ago."

There is positive news for the 123,000 small businesses in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro area.  A majority of consumers say they are ready to start shopping again.

A lifestyle survey just released from Nielsen indicates 53% of Americans believe that despite the continuing pandemic, life is beginning to normalize, and they are likely to resume typical activities.  Nielsen refers to this majority as "Ready-To-Go".

According to the survey, Ready-To-Go consumers now perceive less risk, feel safer, and believe their cities are emerging from crisis.

The key takeaway for Tampa Bay small business owners is that Ready-To-Go consumers are significantly more likely to start shopping within 30 days than the total population.  These buyers, according to Nielsen, are looking to spend on home improvement, professional services, auto parts/repair, shopping, food & dining, and travel.

To capture a meaningful share of the money Ready-To-Go consumers will be spending requires local small business owners to advertise.  By almost every metric, advertising on Tampa radio is the best advertising option.

There are more than 2,000,000 car radios in the Tampa Bay area. On April 3, though, many of these devices became quarantined along with their owners. That was the day when the Governor of Florida shut down the state to slow the spread of COVID-19.

According to the Apple Mobility Index, the Governor's public-safety order caused traffic on Tampa Bay roadways to plummet to 25% of pre-pandemic levels.

By the beginning of July, however,  the AMI indicates that traffic in Tampa Bay began to return pre-Covid levels. The surge in mobility is due, in part, to work-from-home, furloughed, and laid-off employees returning to their workplaces.

According to Nielsen, during the week of April 30, only 39% of adults with jobs were working outside-the-home.  During the week of October 1, though, that number had expanded to 61%.

Now would be a good time for Tampa Bay small business owners to consider increasing their advertising expenditures.

There are just over 123,000 small businesses in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.  Based on some promising retail sales data, the Overall  Sentiment Index among local small business owners has improved 31.25% between April 26 and October 12 of this year.

The best news for business owners came from the Commerce Department on Friday when it reported that retail sales rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.9% in September.  This is the fifth straight month of gains.

Local retail gains are being powered by improving consumer confidence and a large pool of cash sitting in people's savings accounts.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 101.8 in September, up 17.9% from August. This means consumers are in the mood to spend. Fortunately, they have money in the bank to do so.