Economic concerns among Tampa Bay area consumers are not expected to subdue holiday shopping in in 2022.  Based on forecasts from The National Retail Federation, local shoppers are projected to spend at least $9.6 billion this year. This would be 6% more than was spent in 2021.

“While consumers are feeling the pressure of inflation and higher prices, and while there is continued stratification with consumer spending and behavior among households at different income levels, consumers remain resilient and continue to engage in commerce,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “In the face of these challenges, many households will supplement spending with savings and credit to provide a cushion and result in a positive holiday season.”

The biggest challenge facing Tampa Bay business owners is keeping holiday spending local. NRF expects 10-12% of purchases to happen online from retailers like Amazon and Walmart.

To lay claim to this expanding pool of holiday spending,  and keep business local, small business owners will need advertising. By, most marketing metrics, the best way to advertise is on Tampa Bay radio.

Local consumers may have a gloomy feeling about economic conditions, but their spending has not tapered. This is good news for the 123,853 small business owners in the Tampa Bay area.

According to the latest University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers, sentiment about current economic conditions remains near the all-time low. Concerns about volatile gas prices, rampant inflation, and a looming recession have driven the survey's index down 37% versus a year ago.

Despite these dim consumer sentiments, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis's July report shows that real personal consumption expenditures are pacing well above pre-Covid levels. According to Morgan Stanley research, consumers' ability to spend is being driven, in part, by a massive amount of excess savings accumulated over the course of the pandemic.

Earlier this year, based on per capita spending data from the National Retail Federation (NRF). Tampa Bay consumers were forecast to spend nearly $50 billion at retail this year. The current level of spending suggests that shoppers are on track to hit that number.

Of course, for local business owners to successfully compete for a share of this record spending requires marketing. By most key marketing metrics, the best way to advertise is on Tampa Bay radio. This is especially true among business owners who must limit the number of marketing channels that can be used because of economic restraints.

Of all media, advertising on the radio provides the greatest return on investment.

Father's Day this year is on Sunday, June 19. Based on projections from the National Retail Federation (NRF), Tampa Bay shoppers are expected to spend $203.1 million on the dads in their life. This is on par with the record-breaking $204.1 million spent in 2021.

“Despite growing concerns about inflation, consumers plan to spend approximately the same amount as last year in celebration of Father’s Day,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Spending patterns also reflect the sentimental nature of the holiday as consumers are prioritizing unique and meaningful gifts.”

The NRF projects that nearly 60%, of all Father's Day purchases in Tampa Bay, will be for special outings, clothing, gift cards, and electronics. Although most category spending will be down slightly from last year, the amount of money spent on special outings such as dinner is expected to increase by over 8%.

Here is how this large pool of Father's Day cash in Tampa Bay is expected to be distributed in all retail categories.

Each week according to Nielsen, 2.2 million consumers tune in to a Tampa radio station. This is significantly more adults than watch local TV stations, cable, or streaming video. It is more than browse social media. It is more than listen to streaming audio services or podcasts. It is more than read local newspapers.

There are two traits Tampa Bay radio listeners have in common. First, they are very loyal to their favorites, tuning-in to, on average, only 2.8 different stations each week.

Second, and of particular importance to Tampa Bay small business owners, radio listeners are returning to 'normal' at a faster rate than the general population after more than two years of pandemic.

Since the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, Nielsen has been measuring consumer sentiment in regard to normal behaviors. In a survey conducted in March of this year, 83% of adults say they are "ready to go and feel life is becoming more normal". This is up dramatically from the same time last year.

Tampa Bay consumers are on track to spend more than $46.3 billion at retail this year, based on projections by the National Retail Federation (NRF). Spending is expected to be 13.5% higher than last year.  

Some Tampa Bay small business owners, though, are wondering if the spread of the Delta Variant may slow spending if consumers sense pressure on their own financial security. Shoppers, however, don't see it that way.

New research from Nielsen indicates that 82% of consumers believe their household finances will either remain the same or improve during the upcoming months.

The Nielsen study has another finding that Tampa Bay business owners will find promising. Consumers are more likely to shop locally than they did before the onset of the pandemic, although in different ways.

In 2021, according to Nielsen, 180,799 Tampa Bay area homeowners are expected to spend $1.6 billion on kitchen and bathroom remodeling. This would be an increase of 16.8% increase over last year. Sales estimates are based on data from The National Kitchen & Bath Association (NKBA).

Because of the ongoing pandemic, 1.7 million homeowners from Clearwater to Lakeland are in the process of reassessing their living spaces.

According to the NKBA, homeowners cite the kitchen and bath areas as two times more important than other spaces within the home, and the kitchen particularly gained status throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, with 70% of homeowners considering it extremely important compared to 64% before the crisis.

“After such a strong year for home remodeling in 2020, some wondered if we were approaching a home improvement spending ‘cliff.’ We’re pleased to say that’s not what the kitchen and bath market is expecting in 2021,” said Bill Darcy, NKBA CEO.

“Last year, homeowners started the work of improving their living spaces with DIY projects. And this year, with early distribution of the vaccine and other measures to reduce the public health impact of the virus, we expect to see continued renovations and more projects requiring our members.”

Tampa consumers are expected to spend upward of $43.9-billion at retail in 2021. This would be, at minimum, a 6.5% jump over 2020. The forecast is based on newly released estimates by the National Retail Federation.

“Despite the continuing health and economic challenges COVID-19 presents, we are very optimistic that healthy consumer fundamentals, pent-up demand and widespread distribution of the vaccine will generate increased economic growth, retail sales and consumer spending,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.

“From the outset of the pandemic, retailers have gone above and beyond even the most conservative safety guidelines to protect and serve their associates and consumers alike."

To capture the largest possible share of spending growth, local retailers will need to advertise. By the most crucial marketing metrics, the best best way to reach consumers is by advertising on Tampa radio.

There is positive news for the 123,000 small businesses in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro area.  A majority of consumers say they are ready to start shopping again.

A lifestyle survey just released from Nielsen indicates 53% of Americans believe that despite the continuing pandemic, life is beginning to normalize, and they are likely to resume typical activities.  Nielsen refers to this majority as "Ready-To-Go".

According to the survey, Ready-To-Go consumers now perceive less risk, feel safer, and believe their cities are emerging from crisis.

The key takeaway for Tampa Bay small business owners is that Ready-To-Go consumers are significantly more likely to start shopping within 30 days than the total population.  These buyers, according to Nielsen, are looking to spend on home improvement, professional services, auto parts/repair, shopping, food & dining, and travel.

To capture a meaningful share of the money Ready-To-Go consumers will be spending requires local small business owners to advertise.  By almost every metric, advertising on Tampa radio is the best advertising option.

There are more than 2,000,000 car radios in the Tampa Bay area. On April 3, though, many of these devices became quarantined along with their owners. That was the day when the Governor of Florida shut down the state to slow the spread of COVID-19.

According to the Apple Mobility Index, the Governor's public-safety order caused traffic on Tampa Bay roadways to plummet to 25% of pre-pandemic levels.

By the beginning of July, however,  the AMI indicates that traffic in Tampa Bay began to return pre-Covid levels. The surge in mobility is due, in part, to work-from-home, furloughed, and laid-off employees returning to their workplaces.

According to Nielsen, during the week of April 30, only 39% of adults with jobs were working outside-the-home.  During the week of October 1, though, that number had expanded to 61%.

Now would be a good time for Tampa Bay small business owners to consider increasing their advertising expenditures.

There are just over 123,000 small businesses in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.  Based on some promising retail sales data, the Overall  Sentiment Index among local small business owners has improved 31.25% between April 26 and October 12 of this year.

The best news for business owners came from the Commerce Department on Friday when it reported that retail sales rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.9% in September.  This is the fifth straight month of gains.

Local retail gains are being powered by improving consumer confidence and a large pool of cash sitting in people's savings accounts.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 101.8 in September, up 17.9% from August. This means consumers are in the mood to spend. Fortunately, they have money in the bank to do so.