“Back-to-class shopping is one of the most important consumer shopping occasions of the year," says Matthew Shay, President and CEO of the National Retail Federation (NRF).  "Our research for 2023 shows American consumers are eager to jumpstart their back-to-school and college purchases early."

Based on per capita spending estimates from the NRF, Tampa Bay area parents are expected to spend a record $431,571,875 to prepare more than 435,400 children returning to grades K-12. These expenditures will exceed 2022 back-to-school sales by 12.5%

Expenditures to equip K-12 students in the Tampa Bay area will be on:

• Clothing: $158.1 million
• Shoes: $124.7 million
• Supplies: $81.1 million
• Electronics: $67.6 million

In addition to expenditures for K-12,  $ 977.5 million is expected to be spent in the Tampa Bay area to prepare college students for their return to campus. This is 27% more than was spent last year. Another record.

The biggest spending categories to equip Tampa Bay area college students in 2023 will include:

• Electronics: $241.2 million
• Dorm/Apartment Furniture: $136.2 million
• Clothing: $129.2 million
• Food Items: $108.1 million

In order to capture the largest portion of this record back-to-class cash, Tampa Bay small business owners will need to fight to keep these dollars local. According to the NRF, a painful majority of shoppers plan to buy online and in department stores.  While only 13-15% of consumers plan to buy locally.

Local businesses have been marketing their goods and services on Tampa Bay radio since May 31, 1922. That's when WDAE signed-on as Western Florida's first station.

WDAE was owned by three-time mayor and publisher of the Tampa Daily Times newspaper, D.B. McKay.

The station broadcast from the sixth floor of the Citrus Exchange Building at the corner of Zack and Tampa Street. The building would later become the downtown location of the Maas Brothers department store.

Who could have guessed that 101 years later, advertising on Tampa Bay radio would still be the best advertising option for all types of retailers and business owners.

Every week, according to Nielsen, Tampa Bay radio reaches 2,226,951 adult consumers. This reach is significantly higher than all other advertising options including local TV, cable, social media, streaming video, online audio, and newspapers.

Reach, according to Nielsen, is the audience metric most responsible for driving the success of an advertising campaign. Only the message itself carries more sway.

Despite high-interest rates, inflation, and recession fears, Tampa Bay area consumers are expected to spend between $65.6 and $66.9 billion dollars at retail in 2023, according to recent per capita forecasts based on a survey by the National Retail Federation. This will be a 4-6% increase over 2022.

“In just the last three years, the retail industry has experienced growth that would normally take almost a decade by pre-pandemic standards,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “While we expect growth to moderate in the year ahead, it will remain positive as retail sales stabilize to more historical levels."

The challenge for Tampa Bay area retailers, however, is keeping a significant share of these dollars in local cash registers. According to the NRF, the amount of money spent online and non-store options will increase by 10-12%. This is nearly twice the growth rate of all 2023 retail dollars and translates to more than a $6.6 billion dollar outflow.

To keep the expected deluge of new retail dollars local, area small business owners will need to advertise to convince Tampa Bay consumers of all the benefits of buying from local companies.  By almost every marketing metric, the best way to advertise is on Tampa Bay radio.

Tampa Bay radio reaches more local consumers each week than any other advertising medium.

According to Nielsen, 2,226,951 adults tune in to their favorite AM/FM stations every week.  This is significantly more consumers than are reached by Tampa Bay TV, cable, streaming video, streaming audio, social media, or newspapers.

AM/FM radio's dominance among local consumers is driven, in large part, by the 2.5 million Tampa Bay area adults who take to the road in their car or truck every week, according to Neilsen.

Over the next 12 months, according to Nielsen, 337,945 Tampa Bay area households plan to buy furniture and mattresses. Based on a per capita forecast from Furniture Today, these expenditures will total $1.29 billion during 2023, a $23.5 million dollar increase over 2022.

Although the forecast growth of furniture and bedding sales is expected to moderate a bit versus 2021, what retailer would not want to grab a share of the multi-million dollar category growth this year?

To capture a bigger share of the increased spending on chairs, couches, beds, tables, and mattresses will require local stores to invest in marketing. And according to most key metrics, the best way to reach local furniture buyers is with advertising on Tampa Bay radio.

Tampa Bay business owners should brace for a sweet Valentine's Day in 2023.

Based on per capita spending forecasts from the National Retail Federation (NRF), Tampa Bay area consumers are expected to spend $264.7 million on their Valentines this year, 8.4% more than they did in 2022.

Overall, says the NRF, 52% of consumers plan to celebrate Valentine's day this year. On average, each celebrant will spend $192.80 on holiday gifts and outings. This is $17 more than last year.  Here is the most interesting part, though.

"While spending on significant others and family members is in line with last year, many consumers are looking to show appreciation for the other meaningful relationships in their lives," says the NRF. "Of the $17 increase in per-person spending, $14 comes from gifts for pets, friends, and co-workers, along with classmates or teachers."

Tampa Bay area business owners have an abundance of options for marketing their goods and services to local consumers. New research from Nielsen, however, indicates that advertising on Tampa radio is still the best way to reach local shoppers.

Every week, according to Nielsen, Tampa radio reaches 2.2 million adults. This is significantly more than are reached by social media, local TV stations and cable systems, newspapers, streaming video and audio, and podcasts.

In addition to listening to their favorite Tampa radio stations over the air, Nielsen reports that 647,443 adults also listen to local stations online every month.

As a matter of fact, according to a study conducted by Edison Research during the third quarter of 2022, among Adults 25-54, 17% of all time spent listening to local AM/FM stations occurs online. This share of online listening has nearly doubled since 2016.

Tampa Bay area small business owners have an abundance of options for advertising their goods and services. Choices include local TV, local cable, social media, streaming video, streaming audio, podcasts, and newspapers.

The best way to advertise in Tampa Bay, however, is local radio.

Every week, according to Neilsen, 2.2 million adults tune-in to their favorite Tampa Bay radio stations. This is significantly more than any other advertising medium.

In addition to the adults who listen to Tampa Bay radio over-the-air, an incremental 93,926 adults connect to their favorite stations online as well using their phones, computers, and tablets. In all, according to Nielsen, 29.2% of all Tampa Bay radio listeners listen both online and offline.

Local consumers may have a gloomy feeling about economic conditions, but their spending has not tapered. This is good news for the 123,853 small business owners in the Tampa Bay area.

According to the latest University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers, sentiment about current economic conditions remains near the all-time low. Concerns about volatile gas prices, rampant inflation, and a looming recession have driven the survey's index down 37% versus a year ago.

Despite these dim consumer sentiments, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis's July report shows that real personal consumption expenditures are pacing well above pre-Covid levels. According to Morgan Stanley research, consumers' ability to spend is being driven, in part, by a massive amount of excess savings accumulated over the course of the pandemic.

Earlier this year, based on per capita spending data from the National Retail Federation (NRF). Tampa Bay consumers were forecast to spend nearly $50 billion at retail this year. The current level of spending suggests that shoppers are on track to hit that number.

Of course, for local business owners to successfully compete for a share of this record spending requires marketing. By most key marketing metrics, the best way to advertise is on Tampa Bay radio. This is especially true among business owners who must limit the number of marketing channels that can be used because of economic restraints.

Of all media, advertising on the radio provides the greatest return on investment.

Local business owners have been advertising on Tampa Bay radio since WDAE first signed-on in 1922.  But, back then, there were only two options for reaching a mass audience: newspapers and radio.

Today, though, advertisers have an over-abundance of marketing options both over-the-air and online. But every week, according to Nielsen, 2.3 million adults listen to a Tampa Bay radio station, giving the 101-year-old medium, by far, the biggest reach amongst local consumers.

A new report released last week by Nielsen underscores AM/FM radio's durable reach among all media.