“Back-to-class shopping is one of the most important consumer shopping occasions of the year," says Matthew Shay, President and CEO of the National Retail Federation (NRF).  "Our research for 2023 shows American consumers are eager to jumpstart their back-to-school and college purchases early."

Based on per capita spending estimates from the NRF, Tampa Bay area parents are expected to spend a record $431,571,875 to prepare more than 435,400 children returning to grades K-12. These expenditures will exceed 2022 back-to-school sales by 12.5%

Expenditures to equip K-12 students in the Tampa Bay area will be on:

• Clothing: $158.1 million
• Shoes: $124.7 million
• Supplies: $81.1 million
• Electronics: $67.6 million

In addition to expenditures for K-12,  $ 977.5 million is expected to be spent in the Tampa Bay area to prepare college students for their return to campus. This is 27% more than was spent last year. Another record.

The biggest spending categories to equip Tampa Bay area college students in 2023 will include:

• Electronics: $241.2 million
• Dorm/Apartment Furniture: $136.2 million
• Clothing: $129.2 million
• Food Items: $108.1 million

In order to capture the largest portion of this record back-to-class cash, Tampa Bay small business owners will need to fight to keep these dollars local. According to the NRF, a painful majority of shoppers plan to buy online and in department stores.  While only 13-15% of consumers plan to buy locally.

Tampa Bay area business owners are expected to spend $1-billion advertising online in 2022. This, according to Borrell Associates, a company that tracks advertising expenditures across the country.

Borrell's forecast indicates that almost 50% of Tampa Bay's online expenditures will be in the form of paid search. The most recognizable type of this advertising is the paid ads that appear adjacent to the results of almost every search query on Google, Yahoo, and Bing.

Borrell's forecast also indicates that approximately 27% of online expenditures will be in the form of display advertising. This consists of traditional banner ads that appear across millions of websites and apps, including social media platforms like Facebook and Instagram. According to SmallBizGenius.net, the average Tampa Bay area consumer is served more than 1700 of these ads per month.

Video advertising in Tampa Bay is forecast to account for 21% of all online ad dollars in 2022. Like search and display, millions of websites can support this type of advertising. This includes sites, apps, and platforms like YouTube, Roku Channel, Hulu, Paramount+, and most social media sites.

The remainder of online advertising dollars is expected to be spent on audio advertising, including streaming sites like Pandora and Spotify; or email marketing campaigns.

Now is a crucial time for Tampa Bay small business owners to advertise.  

According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence has surged to 110, the highest it has been since the onset of the pandemic last March.  The index has bounced back from a low of 89.6 in February. 

Moving forward, Florida business owners can expect buyer optimism to remind high.

“The recovery in consumer confidence is set to continue in the coming months, buoyed by the combination of improving health conditions and wider vaccine distribution,” said Lydia Boussour, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “This should support hearty consumer spending and pave the way for a mini-boom in economic activity this spring and summer.”

As Tampa consumers gain confidence, they are expected to unleash the record $13.2-billion in personal savings amassed during the pandemic. This number is based on figures reported by Barron's in November. 

This combination of consumer confidence and the cache of cash-on-hand has led the National Retail Federation (NRF) to forecast a 7% increase in retail spending in 2021 versus last year.

To claim a significant share of the expected spending tsunami, Tampa Bay business owners plan to boost advertising investments this year.

According to Borrell Associates, a company that tracks advertising trends across the country, Tampa business owners are expected to spend $1.9 billion to advertise the goods and services they sell. This represents a 6.9% increase versus last year.