Tampa Bay area consumers are expected to spend close to $51.3 billion at retail in 2022, based on per capita spending estimates from the National Retail Federation (NRF). This would be an eight percent increase versus 2021.

To capture significant shares of the increased retail spending, the 123,853 small business owners in the Tampa Bay area would typically invest in advertising. Persistent and pernicious inflation pressures, however, are starting to gnaw away at marketing budgets.

According to the National Federation of Independent Business Owners (NFIB), businesses cite inflation as their number one problem. For many Tampa Bay business owners, uncontrollable wholesale, transportation, and labor costs are forcing retailers to raise the prices they charge their customers. But, for many retail products, inflated retail prices can drive customers away. 

To limit consumer price increases and still make a profit, Tampa Bay business owners, then, are forced to cut expenses, including advertising and marketing. This means it is now imperative that the limited investments retailers can make in advertising must deliver the strongest returns possible. 

According to a recent study by Nielsen, advertising on Tampa Bay radio can provide the best return on investment (ROI) for local retailers.

There are 123,853 small business owners in the Tampa Bay area, according to the US Census Bureau. Each of these companies will need larger advertising budgets to successfully compete for a fair share of the expected explosion in consumer spending this year.

Based on new forecasts from The National Retail Federation (NRF), Tampa Bay area consumers are expected to spend between $50.4 and $51.3 billion at retail in 2022, a six to eight percent growth over the previous year.

The NRF's forecasts exclude restaurants, gas stations, and automotive dealers. Included in the numbers, though, are non-store and online sales, which, in Tampa Bay, could reach as high as $12.1 billion this year. This level of spending would be 13% more than in 2021.

Even though the rate of growth rate for 2022 is lower than the 14% jump in 2021, the NRF points out that this year's spending will be well ahead of the 10-year,  pre-pandemic growth rate of 3.7%

To participate in the expected surge in retail spending will require Tampa Bay business owners to advertise. Especially if retailers want to hold their own against the continued growth of non-store and online competition.

Attention Tampa Bay small business owners and retailers: nearly half of holiday shoppers are already spending money. According to the National Retail Federation, 49% of consumers will start their Christmas season shopping before Hallowe'en. 

Consumers plan to spend $997.73 on gifts, holiday items, and other non-gift purchases for themselves and their families this year, according to the annual survey released today by the NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics.

In all, based on forecasts from Deloitte, the world's largest accounting firm, Tampa Bay consumers are expected to spend between $12.9 and $13.2 billion during the holiday shopping period. This would be a 7-9% increase over 2020.

"We anticipate strong consumer spending for the upcoming holiday season. As vaccination rates rise and consumers are more comfortable being outside of the home, we are likely to see increased spending on services, including restaurants and travel, while spending on goods will continue to hold steady. A steady decline in the savings rate to pre-pandemic levels will support consumer spending and keep retail sales elevated this season," said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's U.S. economic forecaster. "Further, e-commerce sales will continue to grow as consumers demonstrate an ongoing and steady movement toward buying online across all categories."

Tampa Bay retailers are noticing that the opening bell for holiday shopping has rung earlier than ever for local shoppers.

Tampa Bay consumers are on track to spend more than $46.3 billion at retail this year, based on projections by the National Retail Federation (NRF). Spending is expected to be 13.5% higher than last year.  

Some Tampa Bay small business owners, though, are wondering if the spread of the Delta Variant may slow spending if consumers sense pressure on their own financial security. Shoppers, however, don't see it that way.

New research from Nielsen indicates that 82% of consumers believe their household finances will either remain the same or improve during the upcoming months.

The Nielsen study has another finding that Tampa Bay business owners will find promising. Consumers are more likely to shop locally than they did before the onset of the pandemic, although in different ways.

Tampa Bay business owners who sell goods and services related to Halloween can expect far more treat than trick this year.

Based on estimates from The National Retail Federation (NRF), Tampa Bay consumers are expected to spend a record $102,960,877 on Halloween. This would be 19.3% more than was handed out in 2020.

The NRF estimates that 65% of consumers intend to celebrate Halloween or participate in Halloween activities this year, up from 58% in 2020 and comparable with 68% in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The top ways consumers are planning to celebrate include handing out candy (66%), decorating their home or yard (52%), dressing in costumes (46%), carving a pumpkin (44%), and hosting or attending a party (25%).

Tampa Bay small business owners looking to scare up a share of this Halloween cash will need to advertise to drive local consumers to their stores and websites. But, to make a difference, advertising needs to begin right away.

"This year consumers are shopping for Halloween items earlier than ever," says the NRF, "with 45% planning to shop in September or earlier and another 39% during the first two weeks of October."

There are 435,400 school-aged children in the Tampa Bay area.  Based on forecasts from the National Retail Federation (NRF), local parents are expected to spend a record $376.7 million to prepare these kids to return to the classroom this fall. 

Overall, the NRF expects back-to-school shoppers to spend almost 10% more in 2021 than they did last year.

“The pandemic forced parents and their school-aged children to quickly adapt to virtual learning, and they did it with an incredible amount of resolve and flexibility,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “We enter the new school year with plans to return to the classroom and retailers are prepared to help Americans find and purchase whatever they need to make this transition as seamless as possible.”

According to the NRF, more than 51% of parents have already started buying for their K-12 students.  But, for Tampa Bay business owners there is still time to benefit.

The NRF reports that nearly 76% of K-12 shoppers are still waiting on lists of school supplies needed. On average, consumers have only completed 18% of the shopping.

Retail spending in the Tampa Bay area is expected to reach $46.3 billion this year, a 13.5% increase versus 2020. These estimates are based on a revised forecast from the National Retail Federation (NRF).

Since May 31, 1922, when WDAE signed on as the first station in Tampa Bay, local business owners have depended on radio advertising to help market their goods and services to West Florida consumers.  But has the Coronavirus pandemic altered the medium's ability to deliver customers to ring up sales for local retailers?

Two critical marketing metrics indicate that advertising on Tampa radio remains the best way for a small business to advertise.

The first measurement is reach. This is the number of different consumers who are exposed to an advertising campaign.

The second measure is return-on-investment (ROI). This is the amount of sales a business can expect for every one dollar invested in advertising.

Based on these metrics, here is how advertising on Tampa radio measures up to other options available to local small business owners.

Earlier this year, based on projections from The National Retail Federation, Tampa Bay area consumers were expected to spend more than $43.9 billion at retail this year, a 6.5% increase versus 2020. New data, however, indicates spending will be remarkably higher.

The NRF revised its data this month, and now expects annual growth of 10.5% to 13.5%. Based on these revisions, the Tampa Bay area retail economy could now top $46.3 billion. Excellent news for West Florida small business owners.

“The economy and consumer spending have proven to be much more resilient than initially forecasted,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “The combination of vaccine distribution, fiscal stimulus, and private-sector ingenuity have put millions of Americans back to work. While there are downside risks related to worker shortages, an overheating economy, tax increases and over-regulation, overall households are healthier, and consumers are demonstrating their ability and willingness to spend. The pandemic was a reminder how essential small, mid-size and large retailers are to the everyday lives of Americans in communities nationwide.”

To put in historical context for Tampa Bay small business owners, Mr. Klenhenz noted that he anticipates the fastest growth the U.S. has experienced since 1984. The reopening of the economy has accelerated much faster than most had believed possible a year ago.

To capture the largest possible share of spending growth, local retailers will need to advertise. By the most crucial marketing metrics, the best best way to reach area consumers is by advertising on Tampa radio.

A surge in pet adoptions and sales during the pandemic has increased the number of pet owners in the Tampa Bay area to 1,384,240, according to Nielsen.

As a result, the amount of money that will be spent in the Tampa Bay during 2021 on domestic dogs, cats, birds, ferrets, and other cuddly creatures will achieve a record-high $1.1 billion. These figures are based on recent forecasts from The American Pet Products Association (APPA),

“We have reached a critical milestone in 2020, generating $103.6 billion in sales [in the U.S.],” said Steve King, President, and CEO of APPA. “We are bullish for the coming year, projecting growth of 5.8% - well above the historical average of 3 to 4%."

Tampa Bay pet owners will be spending in four ways:

1. Food & Treats which includes everything from canned and bagged food to biscuits and chewies.
2. Veterinary Care and Product Sales which includes routine veterinary care, surgical procedures, and sales of pharmaceuticals and other products through veterinary clinics
3. Supplies, Live Animals, and Over-The-Counter Medications which, in addition to dogs and cats. includes fish, birds, small animals, and reptiles. This also includes cages, food and water bowls, as well as leashes and collars.  OTC includes medications for allergy relief, gastric distress, and oral hygiene.
4. Other includes services such as boarding, grooming, and pet sitting.

To capture a significant share of the local pet economy, local business owners who provide these four types of goods and services will need to advertise.  By almost any marketing metric, the best way to reach pet owners is by advertising on Tampa radio.

There are 637,624 millennials in the Tampa area.  The oldest of them turn 40 this year. According to The Pew Research Center, millennials comprise the generation of Americans born between 1981 and 1996.

As a consumer group, millennials account for an outsized percentage of retail spending. This generation represents 24.7% of the Tampa area population but almost one-third of metro-area sales. 

All in, Tampa Bay millennials are expected to ring up more than $20.5 billion in purchases during 2021.  You name it, millennials are planning to buy it.

According to Nielsen, over the next 12 months, Tampa Bay millennials will show up in huge numbers at auto dealerships, furniture stores, mattress stores, appliance stores, home improvement stores, and scores of other area retailers and service providers.